Will 'Brexit' influence how Spaniards vote today? Statistics show seven in 10 support being in the EU
Will 'Brexit' influence how Spaniards vote today? Statistics show seven in 10 support being in the EU
ANALYSTS have been speculating on how far the UK's vote to leave the European Union might impact Spaniards' choices today as they go to the polls for the second time since December to choose their new leader.
A recent survey has shown that 70% of Spanish nationals of all ages feel they have either benefited from being in the EU, or would not fare any better outside it, and would vote to remain if their country held a referendum.
And having seen the early repercussions of the 'Brexit' vote, this may condition how they cast their ballots today.
Professor of Political Science at Madrid's Autonomous University, Ignacio Molina – also part of the Royal Elcano Institute – believes the 'Brexit' may cause voters in Spain to lean further left and could benefit Unidos Podemos; but former Secretary of State for European Affairs under ex-PSOE president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Diego López Garrido, is convinced of the opposite.
Caution and status quo may dominate, and as Unidos Podemos is seen as 'anti-system' and has never yet ruled the country, voters may be wary of taking risks in the same way as those who voted 'Brexit' did.
López Garrido says Unidos Podemos 'wants to leave the EU, the euro and NATO', but in practice, the party has been the only one to campaign actively on the ground in the UK against a Brexit and is as keen as all the others for the remaining 27 member States to become closer than ever.
Molina also speculates that, on the flip side, a 'fear vote', or a 'better the devil you know' approach, could see the PP gaining in today's elections.
He predicts that the Brexit situation could mean a greater turn-out at the polls as Spaniards see what happens when not every eligible voter exercises his or her right.
Either way, analysts believe today's elections will 'reinforce the pro-European sentiment in Spain'.
Enrique Barón of the International European Movement and former European Parliamentary president is 'sure' that the voter will 'tend to support pro-European forces', which he defines as being the PSOE, PP and centre-right Ciudadanos, rather than 'going for adventures' with a 'totally unpredictable result'.
Already, acting president Mariano Rajoy (PP) has called for 'calm and serenity' in light of the Brexit news, which he said he received 'with sadness'.
And his caretaking foreign affairs minister José Manuel García-Margallo admits that with Britain out of the picture, the 'construction of a United States of Europe' is 'much closer'.
The general feeling among politicians in Spain, and members of the public, is that in the long run, the EU may be better off without the UK since 'it never really believed in the European project'.
Professor of the ESADE business school and secretary-general of the Aspen Institute, José María de Areilza, says that the voters in Spain are 'clearly pro-Europe' and are likely to go for parties with similar sentiments, but warns that 'the first thing we have to consider' is that 'all the polls in the UK have been proven wrong'.
Chairman of the Demoscopic Analysis Bureau (GAD3), Narciso Michavila, agrees that parties which place importance on 'Europeanism' will do well and that voter turn-out will be higher, but that otherwise, the 'impact of Brexit will be minimal' in terms of today's results.
Dean of Sociology at Madrid's Complutense University, Fermín Bouza, agrees Brexit will have little effect on the elections today, but warns that 'what is clear' is that whichever government gets into power will 'find things even more complicated' as a result of the UK's decision to leave the EU.