Catalunya 'IndyRef': Half of residents against secession, but most would not vote – giving clear win to separatists, research shows

According to Catalunya's Centre for Opinion Studies (CEO), part of its regional government, those who would vote 'no' to independence have risen from 48.5% of eligible voters – anyone native to or living in Catalunya aged 16 or over – to 49.4%.

Those in favour of secession have dropped from 44.3% to 41.1%.

A total of 7.8% remain unsure which way to vote, and 1.7% did not give a response or preferred not to say.

Previous figures showed 5.5% did not know, and 1.6% did not respond.

This is based upon a survey of 1,500 between June 26 and July 11.

The result comes as a surprise to the general public in Spain, who believed the central government's persistent refusal to even discuss or acknowledge the subject and reiteration that legal action would be taken if it was put to the vote was pushing Catalunya's people more towards the independence idea as a form of protest.

It has long been thought that the right-wing PP's closed stance, and its criminalising 'democracy' has been creating bad feeling and anti-Spain sentiments among the catalanes, an attitude which would probably not be there if the government had been open to the region's concerns or allowed at least a non-binding opinion poll to go ahead.

The majority of those questioned – 1,121 – were based in the province of Barcelona, home to Catalunya's largest and Spain's second-largest city, with much smaller numbers in Girona, Tarragona and Lleida.

Over two-thirds of the total said they would definitely vote in the October 1 referendum, which has led to national president Mariano Rajoy threatening court action and even criminal proceedings against Catalunya's leader Carles Puigdemont, his associates, and even town councils who agree to set up ballot boxes.

Those who intend to vote believe nearly two-thirds of the ballots would go in favour of secession with just 38% expected to vote 'no'.

And they could be right: a high number of those against independence say they do not intend to vote, stressing that the referendum is illegal as it is not provided for by the Spanish Constitution.

Ironically, their convictions are likely to lead to an overwhelming majority backing their region becoming a separate nation, since those who consider it their right to vote are likely to be those who do – and those who are not concerned with what the Constitution says are those who tend to prefer the idea of independence.

But the pro-secession parties, Junts pel Sí (JxSí, or 'together for yes') and the CUP – which are governing in coalition would lose their majority if a regional election were to be called today, according to the CEO study.

In October 2015, JxSí gained 62 seats and the CUP 10, but would now earn around 60 and six respectively.

This would mean they did not achieve the 68-seat majority needed to govern without support.

The socialists, PSC, who are against the referendum, would earn 17 to 20 seats compared with their current 16, whilst the regional faction of left-wing Podemos, Sí Que Es Pot ('It can be done', roughly translated) would go from its existing 11 seats to 15 or 17 and the PP, currently on 11, would fare around the same, or may rise to 13 seats.

Centre-right Ciudadanos, also against the referendum, would drop from its present 25 seats to between 20 and 22.