Economy shows buoyant growth despite Catalunya 'crisis'

The year-on-year growth in the economy has remained at 3.1%, based upon figures for the third quarter of 2017 – and although the disputed referendum had not taken place by then, the data included are right up to the day before it was held, when State and police intervention was well under way and Catalunya had approved its regional law on independence.

This shows the separatist move has not as yet affected Spain's growth, although the full impact of the referendum and Catalunya's powers being withdrawn through Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution will not be known until the end of December, when the fourth-quarter results are released.

Also during the third quarter (Q3), Spain's GDP grew by 0.8% - less than the 0.9% in the second quarter (Q2), possibly due to Catalunya's current issues, but still showing a 16^th consecutive month of increases.

The economy is now showing 10 straight quarters of growth exceeding 3% and 15 consecutive months of overall growth, according to the INE, whose figures match those of the Bank of Spain (pictured) and the ministry for the economy.

And despite Catalunya, the Bank of Spain continues to forecast 'high-level' growth in the economy in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2017.

The reduced Q3 rise in the GDP has been attributed to a slowdown in job creation and fluctuation net trade income, in contrast to healthy development in both in the spring.

Overall, the Bank of Spain predicts the GDP will have grown by 3.1% over the course of 2017, which mirrors the government's own forecasts.

This said, GDP increase will slow to 2.5% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019, according to the country's central bank, and to 2.3% according to the government for next year, based upon the Catalunya crisis.

This said, the AIReF forecasts a GDP growth slowdown to as little as 1.2% for next year, but this still represents an ongoing increase which will, by then, have accumulated 28 months of consistent rises.

Bank of Spain analysts believe national consumer demand will keep the economy afloat, together with favourable financial conditions and improved asset values.

International trade will contribute 0.6% to GDP growth in 2017 overall and 0.3% in 2018 and 2019, these same analysts believe.

Export growth predictions have become more cautious, but still show healthy rises of 6.4% this year, 4.6% next year and 4.5% in 2019.

Imports are expected to end the year on 5% growth, with next year seeing a 4.1% increase, rising to 4.2% in 2019.

This slowdown is due to a forecast increase in national demand fuelled by greater productivity within Spain's borders, cutting the need for importing goods and services.