A REFERENDUM on independence in the Basque Country like the disputed vote held in Catalunya on October 1 would lead to a majority opting to stay in Spain, according to a computer model created at the university in Bilbao.
Although two in three Basques would be completely against a process like that seen in Catalunya, the difference between separatist voters and those against in an actual referendum would be around 17%.
This is the conclusion reached by head of sociology at the University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Dr Francisco José Llera, based upon his 'Euskobarómetro' ('Basque barometer').
The anti-independence stance has increased by around 8% in the last year, despite the northern territory having started to plan a referendum back in 2004 and the main motive behind the terrorist cell ETA being the desire for the French and Spanish Basque regions to be united as a single and separate country.
Even those who vote for the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and Basque Reunification Party (EH Bildu) are, in 53% of cases, against a referendum and unilateral declaration of independence mirroring those of Catalunya.
Those who did not vote for the nationalist parties are even more contrary to the idea, at around 80%.
At both ends of the political scale, the rejection of the 'Catalunya effect' is in the majority, from 69% of those who voted left-wing party Podemos through to 100% of those who cast their ballots in favour of its political polar opposite, the PP.
Basques have condemned both sides of the Catalunya argument, giving the regional government a 3.1 out of 10 for their handling of the situation, and the Spanish State a 1.9 out of 10.
Support for complete independence is down to 24%, although 32% would be in favour of a more federal model, compared with 36% who believe the current self-governing regions system is the best way forward.
