KING Felipe VI's annual Christmas Eve speech once again included a covert appeal to secessionist politicians, as well as raising concerns about young adults' struggle to afford housing and violence against women.
Spain goes to the polls: Hung Parliament almost guaranteed
28/04/2019
SPANIARDS are called upon to vote in another general election - the third in three-and-a-half years and the second in less than three years - with all polls predicting a hung Parliament.
Reigning president Pedro Sánchez of the PSOE (socialist party) has only been in power since June, and is hoping for 'at least 130 to 140 seats', which would still, nonetheless, leave him short of the 176 needed for an outright majority, something no government has achieved in Spain since November 2011.
Despite the right-wing opposition using fear tactics about how a vote for the PSOE would be in favour of Catalunya's separatism, there is no evidence to suggest this would even have a slim chance of prospering: Sánchez needed support from the Catalunya regional parties to gain power in June, and has never heard the end of it since.
But the election was called precisely because these same regional parties voted down Sánchez's 2019 budget, and he has stressed that there will be no referendum and no independence - even though he has always championed the idea of dialogue between Catalunya and the national government.
Steps already taken by the PSOE include increasing pensions by at least the rate of inflation, upping the minimum wage to a gross €900 a month in 14 payments with a pledge to increase it to €1,000 by the year 2021, and plenty of movement on the equality front, plus a pledge to set self-employed persons' Social Security contributions at a percentage of their earnings rather than a flat fee which is, for all bar high earners, prohibitive.
But only 10 months into his role, Sánchez has not yet been able to make great changes.
His is the strongest bet for any voter seeking a left-wing government, since Spain - like the UK - calculates Parliamentary seats according to the D'Hondt or 'first-past-the-post' system, which benefits the larger, established parties.
Left-wing independents Podemos appear to have fallen from favour since they burst onto the scene with a flourish in 2014, emerging from nothing to acquiring five seats in European Parliament and, the following year, becoming Spain's third-largest political force.
A pact between the PSOE and Podemos would be a strong possibility if, between them, they secure enough seats to build a majority.
Podemos which, like the PSOE, considers itself a feminist party which is keen to increase workers' rights, improve job security and wages, tax the very rich to 'feed' the poor and the middle-class, invest in the public health system and fight for equality across the board, has drawn up a manifesto of 264 points in eight blocks.
The party led by Pablo Iglesias wants to introduce an across-the-board guaranteed income for all residents ranging from €600 to €1,200 a month, which would mean the long-term unemployed whose dole money entitlement has run out, and pensioners on the lowest, non-contributory scheme would get State benefits sufficient to live on.
Podemos wants to reduce the standard working week from 40 hours to 34, increase IVA (VAT) on luxury products and reduce it on essentials, cap salaries for MPs and senators, and reduce the minimum voting age from 18 to 16.
Ciudadanos, Spain's fourth-largest political force which has always styled itself on being in the dead centre, has moved farther to the right and intends to strike a pact with the right-wing PP if, between them, they acquire enough seats for an outright majority.
Pedro Sánchez has warned the public that a vote for Ciudadanos would effectively be a vote for the PP.
Its leader, Albert Rivera, focuses his manifesto mainly on Catalunya - updating Spain's Criminal Code to cover the offences of rebellion and sedition, allowing any region which calls an independence referendum to be charged and tried, and applying Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution 'immediately', which would strip Catalunya of its self-governing powers.
Rivera also wants to introduce a compulsory school subject on the Constitution, believing this would be a guarantee against any future attempt at an independence bid.
In terms of maternity, paternity and the lesbian and gay community, however, Ciudadanos is the only party which would legalise surrogacy, allowing all-male couples and infertile women to have children of their own, but he insists this should be 'entirely altruistic' with no payment changing hands - meaning willing surrogate mothers are likely to be scarce.
The PP also wants to apply Article 155 immediately, pass a law banning referenda, clamp down on 'illegal immigration', and lower taxes - although it is not clear whether this would only apply to lower- and middle-income workers, or also to large fortunes.
Its leader, Pablo Casado - one of the party's most right-wing in the last 20 years - has not made any mention of abortion, protecting transsexuals, fighting corruption or equality for women or the lesbian, gay and bisexual community, although he does give a nod to 'ensuring equality for all citizens'.
Far-right Vox, absent from Parliament until December when it won 12 seats out of 110 in the Andalucía regional elections, has presented '100 urgent measures for Spain', including clamping down on immigration, overturning the equal marriage law and redefining matrimony as a union 'between a man and a woman', and - along with the PP - wants to promote bullfighting.
Vox does not include feminist policies and wants to scrap the definition of 'gender violence', renaming it 'domestic violence', and also intends to bring back compulsory military service for school- and college-leavers.
It is likely that the PP and Vox would attempt to forge a coalition if the numbers added up in their favour, although Ciudadanos is less keen to do so.
Unlike in the general elections in November 2015 - repeated in summer 2016 due to an inconclusive result - the balance of candidates is more right-leaning than left.
Regional parties likely to be needed
But regional parties are out in force and expecting to win seats, and most of these are left-wing or centrist.
Compromís, in the Valencia region and En Marea in Galicia are left-wing, whilst the Basque National Party (PNV) is more centre-left and the Canarian Coalition centrist.
Centre-right Junts per Catalunya, and the Catalunya Left Republicans (ERC) will also be running, along with Basque reunification party EH Bildu.
Pro-animal party PACMA has always been in the background, but squeezed into Parliament during the last elections and has now produced a programme covering left-wing, social measures aimed at humans as well as at animals.
Again, PACMA and the regional parties need far more votes per seat than the other, larger outfits.
Podemos wants to change the D'Hondt system to make it fairer on smaller, newer parties, believing that voters are discouraged from casting their ballots in their direction as they have less clout than those given to what Pablo Iglesias calls 'The Establishment', or 'The Caste'.
The PP, however, wants to change the system so that the party with the most votes automatically gets into power, even if it lacks a majority.
Only Spanish nationals are permitted to vote in a general - or regional - election, meaning expats will not have a ballot, but Spaniards living abroad are entitled to votes for life and the results of today's count will only be provisional, pending receipt of all the postal votes from abroad, which will be added to the total on Wednesday this week.
Already, 1.2 million Spaniards living in Spain have voted by post, for which the deadline was Friday at 14.00.
Polls predict inconclusive result
Polls show that the highest number of votes will go to the PSOE, but estimate that it will only end up with around 123 seats - a long way short of a majority, for which another 53 would be necessary.
A coalition with Podemos, predicted to earn just 36 seats - half of its 71 following the 2016 general election - would still only give a left-wing government 159, leaving it 17 short.
The PP is predicted to earn 79 seats and Ciudadanos, 49, meaning a coalition would give them 128, and if they joined up with Vox - expected to win 29 seats - this would give them 157.
Even a PSOE-Ciudadanos coalition, which both these parties have ruled out, would only provide 172 seats, leaving them four short.
Regional parties are likely to be key in forming a government, although the Catalunya entities are almost certain to demand a legal referendum on independence as a condition and, with ERC expected to win 15 seats and Junts per Catalunya (JxCat) five, the pro-secession politicians are showing in the polls as being the largest regional force.
The PNV is predicted to win six to seven seats and EH Bildu two to three, whilst Compromís is forecast to win three to four.
Much smaller representation is forecast for Nueva Canarias (0-1), Canarian Coalition (one), and Navarra Suma (two), with no seats predicted for En Marea or PACMA.
After the 2016 general elections, the PP - then led by existing president Mariano Rajoy - earned 137 seats to the PSOE's 85; Podemos won 71 and Ciudadanos 32, whilst the regional parties combined accounted for 25, and Vox did not win any representation.
The result is almost certain to be another hung Parliament and whoever gains the most seats will still, even if a coalition is formed, lack a majority to enable it to govern.
Photograph 1 (L-R): Pedro Sánchez (PSOE), Pablo Casado (PP), Albert Rivera (Ciudadanos), Santiago Abascal (Vox), and Pablo Iglesias (Podemos)
Photograph 2: Minimum wage rises, reduced working hours and greater job security feature in Podemos’ and the PSOE’s campaigns
Photograph 3: Curbing Catalunya’s ongoing independence bid is at the centre of the right-wing parties’ manifestos
Photograph 4: Postal voting closed on Friday, April 26 at 14.00 in mainland Spain (13.00 in the Canary Islands)
Photograph 5: The polls as at Monday, April 22
Related Topics
SPANIARDS are called upon to vote in another general election - the third in three-and-a-half years and the second in less than three years - with all polls predicting a hung Parliament.
Reigning president Pedro Sánchez of the PSOE (socialist party) has only been in power since June, and is hoping for 'at least 130 to 140 seats', which would still, nonetheless, leave him short of the 176 needed for an outright majority, something no government has achieved in Spain since November 2011.
Despite the right-wing opposition using fear tactics about how a vote for the PSOE would be in favour of Catalunya's separatism, there is no evidence to suggest this would even have a slim chance of prospering: Sánchez needed support from the Catalunya regional parties to gain power in June, and has never heard the end of it since.
But the election was called precisely because these same regional parties voted down Sánchez's 2019 budget, and he has stressed that there will be no referendum and no independence - even though he has always championed the idea of dialogue between Catalunya and the national government.
Steps already taken by the PSOE include increasing pensions by at least the rate of inflation, upping the minimum wage to a gross €900 a month in 14 payments with a pledge to increase it to €1,000 by the year 2021, and plenty of movement on the equality front, plus a pledge to set self-employed persons' Social Security contributions at a percentage of their earnings rather than a flat fee which is, for all bar high earners, prohibitive.
But only 10 months into his role, Sánchez has not yet been able to make great changes.
His is the strongest bet for any voter seeking a left-wing government, since Spain - like the UK - calculates Parliamentary seats according to the D'Hondt or 'first-past-the-post' system, which benefits the larger, established parties.
Left-wing independents Podemos appear to have fallen from favour since they burst onto the scene with a flourish in 2014, emerging from nothing to acquiring five seats in European Parliament and, the following year, becoming Spain's third-largest political force.
A pact between the PSOE and Podemos would be a strong possibility if, between them, they secure enough seats to build a majority.
Podemos which, like the PSOE, considers itself a feminist party which is keen to increase workers' rights, improve job security and wages, tax the very rich to 'feed' the poor and the middle-class, invest in the public health system and fight for equality across the board, has drawn up a manifesto of 264 points in eight blocks.
The party led by Pablo Iglesias wants to introduce an across-the-board guaranteed income for all residents ranging from €600 to €1,200 a month, which would mean the long-term unemployed whose dole money entitlement has run out, and pensioners on the lowest, non-contributory scheme would get State benefits sufficient to live on.
Podemos wants to reduce the standard working week from 40 hours to 34, increase IVA (VAT) on luxury products and reduce it on essentials, cap salaries for MPs and senators, and reduce the minimum voting age from 18 to 16.
Ciudadanos, Spain's fourth-largest political force which has always styled itself on being in the dead centre, has moved farther to the right and intends to strike a pact with the right-wing PP if, between them, they acquire enough seats for an outright majority.
Pedro Sánchez has warned the public that a vote for Ciudadanos would effectively be a vote for the PP.
Its leader, Albert Rivera, focuses his manifesto mainly on Catalunya - updating Spain's Criminal Code to cover the offences of rebellion and sedition, allowing any region which calls an independence referendum to be charged and tried, and applying Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution 'immediately', which would strip Catalunya of its self-governing powers.
Rivera also wants to introduce a compulsory school subject on the Constitution, believing this would be a guarantee against any future attempt at an independence bid.
In terms of maternity, paternity and the lesbian and gay community, however, Ciudadanos is the only party which would legalise surrogacy, allowing all-male couples and infertile women to have children of their own, but he insists this should be 'entirely altruistic' with no payment changing hands - meaning willing surrogate mothers are likely to be scarce.
The PP also wants to apply Article 155 immediately, pass a law banning referenda, clamp down on 'illegal immigration', and lower taxes - although it is not clear whether this would only apply to lower- and middle-income workers, or also to large fortunes.
Its leader, Pablo Casado - one of the party's most right-wing in the last 20 years - has not made any mention of abortion, protecting transsexuals, fighting corruption or equality for women or the lesbian, gay and bisexual community, although he does give a nod to 'ensuring equality for all citizens'.
Far-right Vox, absent from Parliament until December when it won 12 seats out of 110 in the Andalucía regional elections, has presented '100 urgent measures for Spain', including clamping down on immigration, overturning the equal marriage law and redefining matrimony as a union 'between a man and a woman', and - along with the PP - wants to promote bullfighting.
Vox does not include feminist policies and wants to scrap the definition of 'gender violence', renaming it 'domestic violence', and also intends to bring back compulsory military service for school- and college-leavers.
It is likely that the PP and Vox would attempt to forge a coalition if the numbers added up in their favour, although Ciudadanos is less keen to do so.
Unlike in the general elections in November 2015 - repeated in summer 2016 due to an inconclusive result - the balance of candidates is more right-leaning than left.
Regional parties likely to be needed
But regional parties are out in force and expecting to win seats, and most of these are left-wing or centrist.
Compromís, in the Valencia region and En Marea in Galicia are left-wing, whilst the Basque National Party (PNV) is more centre-left and the Canarian Coalition centrist.
Centre-right Junts per Catalunya, and the Catalunya Left Republicans (ERC) will also be running, along with Basque reunification party EH Bildu.
Pro-animal party PACMA has always been in the background, but squeezed into Parliament during the last elections and has now produced a programme covering left-wing, social measures aimed at humans as well as at animals.
Again, PACMA and the regional parties need far more votes per seat than the other, larger outfits.
Podemos wants to change the D'Hondt system to make it fairer on smaller, newer parties, believing that voters are discouraged from casting their ballots in their direction as they have less clout than those given to what Pablo Iglesias calls 'The Establishment', or 'The Caste'.
The PP, however, wants to change the system so that the party with the most votes automatically gets into power, even if it lacks a majority.
Only Spanish nationals are permitted to vote in a general - or regional - election, meaning expats will not have a ballot, but Spaniards living abroad are entitled to votes for life and the results of today's count will only be provisional, pending receipt of all the postal votes from abroad, which will be added to the total on Wednesday this week.
Already, 1.2 million Spaniards living in Spain have voted by post, for which the deadline was Friday at 14.00.
Polls predict inconclusive result
Polls show that the highest number of votes will go to the PSOE, but estimate that it will only end up with around 123 seats - a long way short of a majority, for which another 53 would be necessary.
A coalition with Podemos, predicted to earn just 36 seats - half of its 71 following the 2016 general election - would still only give a left-wing government 159, leaving it 17 short.
The PP is predicted to earn 79 seats and Ciudadanos, 49, meaning a coalition would give them 128, and if they joined up with Vox - expected to win 29 seats - this would give them 157.
Even a PSOE-Ciudadanos coalition, which both these parties have ruled out, would only provide 172 seats, leaving them four short.
Regional parties are likely to be key in forming a government, although the Catalunya entities are almost certain to demand a legal referendum on independence as a condition and, with ERC expected to win 15 seats and Junts per Catalunya (JxCat) five, the pro-secession politicians are showing in the polls as being the largest regional force.
The PNV is predicted to win six to seven seats and EH Bildu two to three, whilst Compromís is forecast to win three to four.
Much smaller representation is forecast for Nueva Canarias (0-1), Canarian Coalition (one), and Navarra Suma (two), with no seats predicted for En Marea or PACMA.
After the 2016 general elections, the PP - then led by existing president Mariano Rajoy - earned 137 seats to the PSOE's 85; Podemos won 71 and Ciudadanos 32, whilst the regional parties combined accounted for 25, and Vox did not win any representation.
The result is almost certain to be another hung Parliament and whoever gains the most seats will still, even if a coalition is formed, lack a majority to enable it to govern.
Photograph 1 (L-R): Pedro Sánchez (PSOE), Pablo Casado (PP), Albert Rivera (Ciudadanos), Santiago Abascal (Vox), and Pablo Iglesias (Podemos)
Photograph 2: Minimum wage rises, reduced working hours and greater job security feature in Podemos’ and the PSOE’s campaigns
Photograph 3: Curbing Catalunya’s ongoing independence bid is at the centre of the right-wing parties’ manifestos
Photograph 4: Postal voting closed on Friday, April 26 at 14.00 in mainland Spain (13.00 in the Canary Islands)
Photograph 5: The polls as at Monday, April 22
Related Topics
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