Asteroid 'will threaten earth in 2082', says Canarian Astrophysics Institute

CANARIAN Astrophysics Institute researchers believe a massive asteroid will pass between the moon and the earth in the year 2082 – near enough to the planet to cause a 'significant risk'.

The Solar System group have been using the huge telescope based in the Canary Islands to track the movement of asteroid number 2019 DS1, and expect to to pass within 165,000 kilometres of the earth on February 26 in 63 years' time.

This means any child born this year will be just short of current pension age when it happens, or anybody aged 37 now will be 100 then – an age which is likely to be quite a normal life expectancy by that time.

Even though anyone aged 40 or over today is unlikely to see it, the risk to the planet will be very real for many of today's children and very young adults.

As yet, the Canary Island researchers have not been able to determine where the asteroid will fall, but say that wherever it does, it could cause a catastrophe similar to that of 1908 when space matter landed in Tunguska in the central Siberian plains of Russia.

Back then, at 07.17 local time on June 30, the 37-metre (120-foot) diameter object created an explosion similar to that of a nuclear bomb and was even detected by earthquake radars as far away as the UK.

It set fire to 2,150 square kilometres of trees, shattered windows and led to people 400 kilometres away falling to the ground.

For several days, the nights over Russia and even the rest of Europe were so bright that residents could read without the need for candles or lamps.

According to experts who have studied the asteroid landing since, horses 600 kilometres away fell suddenly to the ground and sailors were hurled into the sea whilst houses at this distance trembled and parts of their structure fell.

The light was described as being 'as bright as the sun', and even the train driver on the Trans-Siberian railway stopped dead, fearing the convoy would be thrown off the track or overturn.

If it had landed in an inhabited area, the asteroid would have caused a massacre and wiped out a population equivalent to that of a small country.

The object was never found and did not leave a crater – its size was calculated by the strength of the impact, described as the equivalent of 185 times that of the bomb which struck Hiroshima – and the most common theory since was that it was made of ice and shattered upon contact with the earth, blending in with the snow or melting.

But today's toddlers should reconsider if they decide, when they are old enough, that there is no point investing in a pension fund: at the time of Tunguska, 111 years ago, scientists did not have access to the same sophisticated equipment as nowadays.

The 2019 DS1 is currently 50 million kilometres away, and Canarian Astrophysics Institute (IAC) area coordinator Javier Licandro says they will be able to tell, well before February 26, 2082, roughly where it will land.

It was first spotted on the last day of February this year, when it was a million kilometres away, and it has been gradually drifting farther and farther away from the earth, but asteroids are not unipolar and it is likely to get closer over the next six decades.

Long before then, scientists will be able to warn global government officials so that anyone living in the risk area has time to move out.

“The early determination of a possible impact allows us to take the necessary steps to avoid it or, least, minimise its effects,” says Julia de León, head researcher of the Solar System group at the IAC.

“Our observations via telescope, and space missions such as Hera [organised by the European Space Agency and in which IAC investigators are taking part], are essential in order to protect our planet from an asteroid landing on it.”

The above photograph, taken by the IAC, shows the observatory and telescope in Roque de los Muchachos on the island of La Palma.