SPANIARDS will be called back to the polls for a second general election – the fourth in as many years – on November 10 after PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez failed to drum up support for his presidential investiture, which would have been due on September 23.
King Felipe VI has spent two days talking and listening to 15 party leaders and spokespersons, and concluded that none of them – not even caretaker president Sánchez, who won the most votes in the April 28 elections – has sufficient support from their rivals to be sworn in.
The monarch is usually required to officially invite a candidate to form a government following a general election, and this candidate would attend an investiture debate where a majority of votes from all MPs would be needed in the first round – 176 out of 350 – or a 'simple majority' of more 'yesses' than 'noes' in the second round if the first failed would be needed for the new or repeating president to take up office.
Until four years ago, all this was a mere formality – elections were a straight contest between the two largest parties, the left-wing socialists (PSOE) and right-wing PP, and the chances of an exact tie of 175 seats earned each were fairly remote.
Now, with newer independent parties having appeared on the scene – centre-right Ciudadanos, far-right Vox and left-wing Podemos – every election has resulted in a hung Parliament and is likely to do so henceforth.
Sánchez's socialists earned 123 seats out of the 350 in the April election, which he called to give him a democratic mandate after taking power from the PP last June through a no-confidence vote against the party.
These 123 seats were the same number as the PP had held until the election, but their number dropped to 66 after it.
Ciudadanos won 57 seats and Podemos 42, meaning Sánchez would need either 'yes' votes from Podemos and a further 11 MPs from regional parties, or at least, for these to agree to abstain in round two.
Ciudadanos' leader Albert Rivera – who has been criticised for his party's sharp dive to the right ahead of the April elections and his apparent willingness to join forces with the PP and even Vox if the numbers added up – offered to abstain if Sánchez would meet three conditions.
One was to start a committee to plan applying Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution to Catalunya – which allows the State to strip it of its self-governing powers – another was to dissolve the regional government of Navarra, which had been formed through the abstaining of EH Bildu, a party in favour of Basque reunification, and the third was to agree not to increase taxes for the middle class and the self-employed.
Sánchez told Rivera by phone and in writing that his cabinet had already 'guaranteed' these measures – even though the hard line taken by the PP and Ciudadanos in response to Catalunya's ongoing independence campaign does not match Sánchez's pledge to open two-way dialogue instead.
Rivera said Sánchez's response was 'taking the mickey' and withdrew his offer to abstain.
The PSOE, Podemos and even the PP claimed Rivera had been offering a 'poisoned chalice' and his proposal was 'tactical' and 'electioneering'.
Podemos and the PSOE have been trying to reach an agreement for months – initially, Sánchez offered Podemos' leader Pablo Iglesias a deputy presidency for his wife and party spokeswoman Irene Montero plus the leadership of three ministries, not including economy, the treasury or employment, which Iglesias turned down as he wanted five ministries, including all three of the ones Sánchez vetoed.
Other proposals from both sides included Podemos' 'toning down' its demand for an independence referendum in Catalunya, replacing it with a 'round table' for bilateral discussion instead, and 'secretary-of-State-type' roles for Podemos' MPs proposed by Sánchez.
Sánchez was determined to govern alone, in a majority, and simply agree programme features with Podemos, but Podemos wanted the two to join forces in coalition.
Podemos decided yesterday (Tuesday) to ask its paid-up subscribers to vote on whether to give an unqualified 'yes', a 'no' or to abstain if Sánchez's investiture ceremony went ahead, since the party was determined to avoid another general election which would almost certainly lead to a hung Parliament – or, possibly, a right-wing coalition which included the far right.
And 64% of Spaniards surveyed said they did not want to go to the polls again, but instead wanted Sánchez to form a government.
In theory, there is still time for eleventh-hour negotiations, since a general election on November 10 means Parliament will not be dissolved until this coming Monday (September 23).
But Sánchez appears to have been resigned to a fresh general election for at least the past two months, and now says his party is 'asking the people of Spain to say even more clearly' that they want the PSOE to govern.
Podemos claims Sánchez has been inflexible and 'refused to negotiate', but Sánchez says he has 'attempted through all means' but that it was 'impossible' in the end.
Repeat elections had never been a feature of Spanish politics since the Transition to democracy in 1977 – not until the vote of November 2015 produced an inconclusive result.
With 147 seats, Ciudadanos firmly in the centre and Vox not having gained any foothold in local, regional or national government, the PP had no support and, despite being the most-voted party, was forced to step aside.
Pedro Sánchez's PSOE was the next-most voted, but talks with Podemos broke down after the latter took offence when Sánchez tried to form a deal with Rivera, leading to his losing both rounds of the investiture vote.
A fresh election was called in summer 2016 and, once again, the PP had far from sufficient support, but with Ciudadanos and a handful of minority regional parties' reluctantly abstaining to get the government back on track after nearly a year without one, the PP's then leader Mariano Rajoy was sworn in again.
His term lasted less than two years, since corruption charges affecting literally hundreds of PP members led to Sánchez's no-confidence vote being supported on many sides, giving Sánchez the presidential seat.
But with only 84 MPs out of 350, he was unable to govern effectively, and opted to call another election in April 2019 when his annual budget proposal was voted down in Parliament.
This means the November 2019 election will be the fourth in as many years.
