No government before end of 2019, but 'possibly' by January 5

 

SPAIN'S Parliament had everything ready for a possible government-forming session to take place on Monday (December 30), but latest information from the State law service shows that it is unlikely socialist leader Pedro Sánchez will be invested as president in 2019.

Although left-wing parties, including regional outfits, such as Podemos, Más País!, Compromís and Teruel Existe, among others, have pledged their support for Sánchez, he still needs the Catalunya Left Republicans (ERC) to at least abstain, even if they do not vote in his favour.

Unlike in other nations where the party gaining the most seats automatically governs, in Spain, in-house votes from all the other parties need to be, in the majority, in support of the presidential candidate in question.

With 350 seats in Parliament, any would-be president needs at least 176 'yes' votes in the first round, meaning winning an election does not guarantee he – as yet, in Spain's democratic history, never a 'she' – will become leader unless his party gained a majority.

If the first round fails, the presidential candidate stands for a second round of votes, and only needs more 'yes' than 'no' responses, meaning parties who do not truly support the party standing for leadership but who do not want to see a repeat election can make their views clear by abstaining.

ERC needs to do this, at the very least, for Sánchez to govern, but unless the current acting president gives in to the party's demands relating to the Catalunya independence bid, they may opt not to do so.

All non-Catalunya-based parties have maintained a prohibition of a legal referendum on secession for the north-eastern region, albeit with varying levels of flexibility – Podemos, for example, wants to allow a non-binding poll to 'put the feelers out' and then discuss with the region why it wants to break away from Spain, in a bid to find a way of making it want to stay.

But ERC also wants to see the politicians jailed for holding the disputed referendum on October 1, 2017 – sentenced to between nine and 13 years behind bars – released and acquitted.

Government spokeswoman and education minister Isabel Celaá says her cabinet is now working towards a possible investiture ceremony on January 5, but 'prefers not to give a set date' until the ERC negotiations bear some sort of fruit.

Some of the deadlock is the result of the European Union Court of Justice (ECJ)'s having recognised the diplomatic immunity of former Catalunya deputy president, Oriol Junqueras – in jail since November 2017 – meaning he should have been allowed to be released to swear in as MEP and permitted to carry out this rôle, as voted.

The Supreme Court of Spain and the prosecution, along with the State law service, now have to examine the issue.

Sra Celaá remains optimistic, however: 'what is not broken is still in progress' is how she referred to the talks between the ERC and the socialists.

She warns, though, that there is 'no Plan B', because although the socialists are still trying to convince right-wing parties PP and Ciudadanos to abstain, this would appear very unlikely, and only ERC provides enough numbers for Sánchez to get through both rounds of votes.

Meanwhile, as the government is not 'officially' in power, having been a caretaking cabinet since Parliament dissolved ahead of the April elections, many crucial policies have not been possible to put into practice.

They include the increase in minimum wage to €1,000 a month over 14 months a year – or just over €1,200 a month as take-home for those who earn 12 monthly payments annually – and a State pension increase guaranteeing that it will always be in line with inflation.