No outright majority for Sánchez in round one; second vote tomorrow

 

PEDRO Sánchez fell at the first round of his presidential investiture ceremony yesterday (Sunday, January 5), with 10 votes short of a majority – but the number of 'yes' votes was higher, meaning the same result in the second round will put him in the hotseat.

Candidates for president need 176 votes in favour in round one, out of 350 MPs, but if this does not succeed, in the second round, he – so far, would-be and actual presidents have only ever been male – only needs a simple majority in round two.

More MPs voting 'yes' to his presidency than 'no' is enough, meaning that if a potential leader cannot persuade enough opposition members to vote 'yes', he may be able to convince them to abstain, which could still lead to more positives than negatives.

In yesterday's first round, the simple majority was incredibly tight – 166 in favour and 165 against.

With his own 120 MPs and coalition partners Podemos' 35, Sánchez had 155 votes in the bag already, but his having lost the support of some of the smaller, regional outfits due to his having reached agreements with the Catalunya Left Republicans (ERC) and Basque reunification party EH Bildu, meant he attracted more 'no' votes than expected.

Some fear his having to make concessions for ERC gives strength to the Catalunya independence movement, despite the PSOE's always having maintained it would not allow a legally-binding referendum on secession.

Others, including the Cantabria Regional Party (PRC)'s Miguel Ángel Revilla, voted 'no' because of the EH Bildu deal – which has involved giving more devolved powers to the Basque government – since the party has its roots in the now largely-defunct Basque separatist movement.

The drive for Basque independence was behind ETA's 40 years of terrorism, although the MPs in EH Bildu do not necessarily support ETA's methods.

Some EH Bildu supporters have campaigned for ETA prisoners to be moved to jails in the Basque Country so they will be closer to their families, but it is not necessarily the case that the party's actual MPs hold these views.

But those who support Sánchez's presidential bid know that this is probably the last chance to keep the far right out of government.

The right-wing PP's 89 seats, combined with centre-right Ciudadanos' 10, would mean that the alt-right Vox's 52 seats would almost make up the numbers – with help from the right-wing Navarra Suma (NA+).

After the election on November 10, the results were so close that Podemos' leader Pablo Iglesias and Íñigo Errejón, former Podemos member and founder of the party Más País!, urged Sánchez to reach a deal with them and the rest of the left 'as a matter of urgency'.

With only one vote standing between presidency and a repeat election, all MPs know how crucial it is that they attend the second and final investiture voting round.

This is tomorrow (Tuesday, January 7).

Today (January 6) is a national holiday for the Epiphany, or 'Three Kings', which is celebrated in Spain as almost a second Christmas Day.

But the vast majority of MPs who do not live in the capital have opted not to even return to their family homes for the festivities, because they could not guarantee they would be able to get on a plane or train back to Madrid in time for the voting at 12.45.

Sánchez appears very confident that he will finally become an elected president.

He became national leader after a no-confidence vote against the PP in June 2018 was backed by enough parties to prosper, and although many were thrilled to get a left-wing government again for the first time since November 2011, many others were furious at being governed by an 'unelected' president.

Trying to govern the country with just 86 seats out of 350 proved a challenge, and when Sánchez could not attract enough support for his 2019 budget, he opted to call a general election in April to give him a mandate to continue.

The results were inconclusive – the PSOE gained 123 seats, but attempts to negotiate with Podemos – which won 42 – failed as neither party was willing to compromise enough.

As a result, the country was forced back to the polls in November – and this time, Podemos and the PSOE reached a deal within 24 hours of the results going live.

Tuesday's round will be a knife-edge session – even if every MP opts to vote the same way as they did yesterday, there is always a risk that someone on Sánchez's side is off sick or is otherwise prevented from attending through force majeur, or that one or more of them might make a mistake and press the wrong buzzer.

Whilst rare, it would not be the first time an MP has voted for a policy he or she disagreed with, or voted against one that they supported.