Regional election round-up ahead of snap summer generals

SPAIN'S president's huge gamble in calling a snap election this summer might affect everything from the nation's European Union leadership rôle through to local fiesta parades – but Pedro Sánchez considers it necessary after Sunday's nationwide vote.

His party has been weakened by a surge in the key opposition, meaning the current national leader believes a general election in summer could restore its strength if it takes the lion's share of the votes.

The trigger for Pedro Sánchez's bringing the 2023 general election forward from November to July 23 has been largely influenced by the battering his party took on Sunday.

Of the 10 regions then governed by the PSOE, six now have either a PP majority, or the PP was the most-voted, meaning it would be able to govern in coalition if it held the most seats, even if not exactly half plus one.

Councillor and MP seats are usually odd-numbered, so as to prevent tie-breaks, but this does not always avert a hung Parliament.

The PP being the most-voted party does not, automatically, mean it will govern, but the public and media will now be closely scrutinising potential coalitions or pacts that could alter the election outcome.

What Sunday's elections were for, and how they're not the end of the story

Regional governments – which can only be voted for by Spanish citizens – and local councils, where certain foreign residents are able to cast their ballot, have come up for 'renewal' after four years in office.

In Spain, all elections are held on a Sunday, since this is not a working day and so, in theory, allows everyone to participate if they are eligible.

Polling stations are open from 07.00 until 22.00, without closing for lunch.

Once, any election would be a straight battle between the two main national parties, the right-wing PP and the left-wing socialists, or PSOE. But independent parties have been created at all levels of government in the past eight years, meaning it is no longer a case of the most-voted group automatically gaining a majority.

Whilst at present, only two countries in the continent of Europe operate a 'first-past-the-post' system – the UK and Belarus – the PP is keen to introduce it, considering that the party with the most votes should be the one that governs, by default. Where this structure is observed, it can often mean a party with a fairly small minority, barely a quarter of the national vote at times, can end up in power.

But the PSOE and other left and centre-left parties consider the current system to be 'in keeping with the Spanish Constitution', since it genuinely represents what the majority of the electorate decide.

Effectively, with outright majorities now extremely rare, the only way to govern is by forming a coalition to make up the numbers, or at least gaining votes in favour from opposition parties.

As a result, whichever government, at local, regional or national level, is finally sworn in, it will be made up of members who were voted into at least half the seats.

MP votes vs coalitions

For most-voted parties that fall short of a majority but wish to govern alone rather than in coalition, they need to drum up cross-party votes. Presidents are sworn in at the beginning of their term, with all MPs voting for or against on the day, or abstaining if a likely or 'least-worst' outcome is against their political values.

All members of the same party must vote in the same way, not individually, and a president must have more 'yes' than 'no' verdicts to govern, meaning he or she has to convince those with aligned values to vote in support.

Where a party's values do not coincide with those of any likely new government formation, or where the only alternative would be a repeat election and stability is preferred, these MPs might be persuaded to abstain, so that the 'yes' total exceeds the 'no', even if the former is not cast by the majority of those with Parliamentary seats.

That way, the abstaining members are not seen as actively supporting the incoming president, but for practical reasons, have decided not to hinder his or her leadership taking effect.

People's political leaning doesn't always dictate local election choices

Local politics is very different to regional or national; the town council PP or PSOE party may be affiliated to the central organisation, but do not always share their values. Participation in municipal politics is open to everyone, meaning residents seeking to get actively involved in it may simply join the party their friends or family are on, or the one that has enough space in its candidate lists. It means lifelong left-wing voters in national and regional elections may opt for the PP at local level, simply because they consider it has the best ideas for their town – or vice versa.

In some very small villages, in fact, lead candidates for all parties standing for election might even be members of the same extended family.

By contrast, regional elections are seen as a 'warm-up' for a general election, and the balance of power gained by the different parties is considered to be a good indicator of the support they would receive at national level.

Additionally, as Spain's central government works closely with the presidents of all 15 regions on the mainland and the four off-shore regions, the system would not work so well if the majority of these were from parties whose values clashed with those of the national president.

What are regional governments, exactly?

Regional governments have only been an official structure for the past 44-and-a-half years, when the Transition to democracy (always with a capital 'T') provided for what is one of the least-centralised systems in the countries that now make up the European Union.

Whilst it does not quite reach the territory of federal governments, like in Germany and the USA, Spain's regions have slightly more power than, for example, the devolved regional governments in the UK, where Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have some stand-alone decision-making authority.

Like the UK, though, Spain's autonomous or 'devolved' regional governments come within the umbrella of the national government; they can run themselves without intervention from Madrid, but ultimately, the country president and his cabinet (not 'her cabinet', since Spain has yet to elect a female leader), have the final say.

Spain technically has 17 autonomous regions, although in practice, it has 19 – just that two of them are each made up of a single city. These are Ceuta and Melilla, the former being just across the Strait of Gibraltar on the northern coastal tip of Morocco, and the latter being directly due south of the province of Almería, again on the coast and about 900 kilometres west of the Algerian border. Each one is geographically in Morocco, but politically in Spain, has about 85,000 to 90,000 inhabitants, and between them, make Spain the only European Union country sharing a land border with the African continent.

Two of the other 17 are island regions – the Balearic Islands, which is a single-province region made up of Mallorca, Menorca, Ibiza and Formentera; and the Canary Islands, which has two provinces, of Santa Cruz (comprising Tenerife, La Gomera, El Hierro and La Palma) and Las Palmas (consisting of Gran Canaria, Fuerteventura, Lanzarote, and La Gracia).

'Historic regions' permitted election opt-out

Not all regions' elections were held on Sunday, though – the southern territory of Andalucía, the Basque Country, Galicia in the far north-west, and Catalunya in the north-east all host theirs at different dates.

This is because they are considered, by the Constitution – signed in December 1978 – to be 'historic regions'. They were practically fully-formed before the Magna Carta gave rise to the highly-decentralised system of government Spain has now, and are thought to have almost exceptional, or unique, characteristics.

According to Article 151 of the Constitution, the 'cultural features', which include co-official regional languages in the case of Galicia, the Basque Country and Catalunya, and the regional statutes they were permitted to bring into force when the quasi-federal system was designed, mean they have greater autonomy than the others and an increased capacity to handle their in-house issues. The Basque Country and Catalunya have their own traffic authorities and police forces – the Ertzaintza in the former, and the Mossos d'Esquadra (which, curiously, translates as 'grooms' or 'stable-lads') in the latter, both of which are similar to, but not a substitute for, the military-trained Guardia Civil.

As a consequence, these regions are free to host elections when they wish – not later than every four years – rather than having to do so on the same date as the rest of the country.

The centre-northern region of Castilla y León did not participate in the weekend's elections, since its government had opted to call a vote early, doing so in 2022. After less than a year in power, it would have been too disruptive to repeat the process in May 2023.

Madrid, however, has only gone two years since its last regional election, despite not being classified under Article 151 as an 'historic region'. This is because, as the autonomous community that is home to the national capital city, it also has a regional statute, which states that even if it wishes, for political reasons, to call an early election, the government term of office commencing from this vote onwards will still expire when the country as a whole convenes its regional elections – even if that was only six months previously.

Statutes, in those regions which have them, are created by their autonomous governments, although the national government has the power to block any aspect of them they consider legally-precarious.

For this reason, along with Andalucía, the Basque Country (known as Euskadi in its regional language), Galicia and Catalunya, Castilla y León did not to the polls on Sunday, except for their local council elections in some cases, although Madrid did.

So, changes in government were only a possibility in 10 of Spain's mainland autonomous regions and its four offshore ones.

Here's a close-up view of what has happened in each.

Madrid

Current regional president Isabel Díaz Ayuso, of the PP, has amply secured a majority, meaning she and her party can govern alone, without needing supporting MPs from the far-right Vox – which has, incidentally, dropped from 13 seats to 10.

A majority in the region of Madrid is 68 seats, and Sra Ayuso has risen from 65 to 71.

The PSOE has improved its presence, with 27 seats, which is now level with the left-wing independent party Más Madrid, led by Mónica García, having risen in the ranks.

Más Madrid was originally a breakaway party from the national left-wing Podemos which, in national government, is in coalition with president Pedro Sánchez's PSOE.

Podemos itself held 10 seats in Madrid until Sunday, but has now lost them all.

Comunidad Valenciana

This east-coast region, spanning three Mediterranean provinces, was run by the PP for over 20 years until they were ousted in an historic result in the May 2015 elections. Neither the PSOE (the regional branch being the PSPV) nor any other party had enough seats for a majority, but the PSPV was the most-voted, and formed a coalition with Compromís.

Formerly known as El BLOC and calling itself 'nationalist', the definition of this has now taken on negative connotations and does not reflect the group's green, left-wing approach. But they are firmly in favour of bringing the region's culture and language to the fore, with mixed reactions; their critics consider Compromís is promoting valenciano, which comes from the same family as the catalán language, to such an extent that it is taking precedence over the national tongue, Castilian Spanish.

The PSPV and Compromís referred to their 2019 coalition deal as the Pacte Botànic – but the results of Sunday's vote mean it will be impossible for this to continue until May 2027.

Whilst existing PSPV leader and regional president Ximo Puig gained an extra four seats, rising from 27 to 31, Compromís lost two, giving them 15; a minimum of 50 seats is needed for a majority, and the two previous parties jointly will only have 46.

Their only other likely allies, Podemos, has lost all eight of its seats – and centre-right Ciudadanos, which might have considered offering support, has lost all 18.

PP leader Carlos Mazón has expressed an intention of forming a government, although despite more than doubling its presence – from 19 seats to 40 – the PP would still need a coalition to do so.

And left-wing voters are scared that this coalition seems very likely to involve the far-right Vox, which has risen from 10 seats to 13, giving a Vox-PP government 53 seats in total.

Murcia

PP leader and regional president Fernando López Miras has gained another five seats, meaning that although his 21 fall short of the required 23 for a majority, he intends to govern alone.

Miras had been in coalition with Ciudadanos for the first two years after the last elections, but the centre-right party filed a no-confidence motion which nearly cost him the presidency – and put him off multipartite agreements.

To stay in power, he would only need far-right Vox – rising from five seats to nine – to abstain when the whole of regional Parliament votes for the swearing-in of a president, but is quite clear that he does not intend to enter a coalition with them.

The PSOE, with 13 seats, even in coalition with Podemos, which has retained its previous two, would not reach the required 23 and are no threat to Miras' job.

Canary Islands

Here, the PSOE is the most-voted party, but the centrist Canarian Coalition, if it gains support from the right-wing parties, could end up in power.

President Ángel Víctor Torres cannot repeat his coalition with Nueva Canaria, down from five seats to three, and Podemos, which has lost all four – the PSOE's 19 seats, down from 22, would not be enough to make up the 31 required for a majority.

The PP, up from 10 to 13, cannot govern either, even in coalition with Vox's three, but Fernando Clavijo's Canarian Coalition, might gain the support of both and turn its own 17 seats into 33 votes.

If Clavijo does not want to seek right-wing backing and instead turns to the PSOE, the two could govern jointly, albeit with Torres holding the presidency and the bulk of the authority.

Balearic Islands

Currently run by a progressive left coalition of the PSOE, Més Per Mallorca and Podemos, the islands are expected to make a switch to the right as existing president Francina Armengol will not have enough MPs on her side.

The PP has risen from 16 seats to 25, but with Vox's eight would have enough to exceed the required 30.

Left-wing parties banding together would only make up 26 votes in the swearing-in ceremony, meaning the future right-wing leadership in the region is set in stone.

Regions where the PSOE may, or will, stay in power 

Castilla-La Mancha has maintained its PSOE majority, meaning existing president Emiliano García-Page will stay on for another term, whilst in Navarra, PSOE president María Chivite may be able to do so if she gains support or forms a coalition; her 11 seats and the right-wing regional UPN's 15 both fall short of the 26-seat majority required.

Asturias may keep its PSOE president, Adrián Barbón, although it will be very close: Like in 2019, he will need United Left-Más País-IAS and Podemos to lend their support to get a 23-seat majority; the PP, rising seven seats, could reach 21 by joining forces with Vox, but either a left- or right-wing coalition would be at the mercy of regional party Foro Asturias which, with one seat, would almost have a casting vote.

Regions facing a change in government – and existing PP strongholds

Land-locked north-eastern region Aragón will lose its PSOE president, Javier Lambán, even though he has only lost one seat; his 23, even combined with the three for the CHA (Chunta Aragonesista), three from Teruel Existe, and one gained by Podemos, would only make up 30 out of the required majority of 34. But PP leader Jorge Azcón has soared from 16 seats to 28, and with far-right Vox earning seven, means a coalition between them would, indeed, result in a majority.

Another region facing a coalition government with a far-right presence is Cantabria, which has been governed by the Cantabrian Regional Party (PRC)'s Miguel Ángel Revilla after a coalition with the PSOE led to an ample majority. Now, dropping from 15 seats to eight, and even with the PSOE's having increased from six to eight, the complete loss of Podemos means the team will fall short of the 18-seat majority needed. By contrast, the PP's having gained 15 seats (up from nine) means that despite Ciudadanos' complete wipeout, the four gained by Vox will be enough, combined, to form a government.

And in the northern region of La Rioja, the PSOE government will be unable to repeat its deal with Podemos to stay in power: The former's 15 and the latter's two are now down to 12 and two respectively, not meeting the 17 required for a majority. But the PP has gained exactly 17 seats, meaning it does not need to forge a deal with Vox and can govern on its own.

The PSOE was the most-voted party in the western region of Extremadura, but its leader and current regional president Guillermo Fernández Vara has lost his majority and has accepted he may now be out of the picture. Falling from 34 seats to 28 – the same number as the PP, although a rise of eight for the latter – a coalition with Podemos, which has gained its first four seats, would still be one short of the 33-seat majority. 

Yet, a PP-Vox coalition would achieve this after the far-right party gained entry to regional Parliament for the first time with five seats.

Vara has already gone public, saying it is 'clear' his leadership has come to an end, and blamed himself for his party's results.

Melilla's PP leader and former regional president Juan José Imbroda will return to office after four years in opposition after his party gained an outright majority – its 15 seats comfortably exceed the necessary 13, whilst the PSOE achieved three, the independent Coalition for Melilla five, and Vox two. No coalition-forming agreement will be needed, and the PP can govern alone.

To the west along the northern African coast, Ceuta has also reported a PP victory, but the nine seats it has kept from the 2019 elections mean president Juan Jesús Vivas has, once again, fallen short of the 13-seat majority needed.

Four years ago, Vivas formed a coalition with Vox, which had six seats, but political differences led to its breaking up after 18 months, and the PP governing in a minority with supporting votes from the PSOE, with seven seats.

A left-wing coalition was not possible back then, since the PSOE's allies, Movimiento por la Dignidad y la Ciudadanía ('Movement for Dignity and the People', or MDyC) and the Coalition Caballas, only won two and one seats respectively.

MDyC now has three, the Coalition Caballas has disbanded, but the newly-formed Ceuta Ya!, or 'Ceuta Now', has two. Even then, the PSOE, with six, will not be able to make up a majority, so Vivas will need to attempt to form another coalition with Vox's five elected members, or at least gain votes in favour from Ceuta Ya!, MDyC, and Vox, or an agreement to abstain in the swearing-in round so as to gain more 'yes' responses than the PSOE's probable six 'no' verdicts.

Both Ceuta and Melilla, as they are single cities, are also single constituencies, so the elected regional MPs automatically become councillors and the president becomes the mayor by default.

Why might a general election affect Spain's summer fiestas?

Election days mean Local Police have to up security near polling stations, and even more so when these are a general rather than regional or council votes.

Which means that July could not be a worse time of year – summer is when almost every town holds their 'patron saint' fiestas.

Whilst named after the saint in question, references to him or her are usually nominal – in reality, these are just the town's largest festival of the year, one that often runs over a week or more.

In provinces that celebrate the Moors and Christians fiesta, many towns will combine these with their main summer festival – so costumed parades are larger, more spectacular, and more frequent.

Yet, if the Local Police is busy patrolling polling stations, it cannot be on hand to provide security for fiesta events, particularly parades, which sometimes involve closing streets and redirecting traffic.

Not enough police officers for a procession means it cannot go ahead.

Also, anyone eligible to vote in an election is equally eligible to be called up for polling-station duty, which is compulsory.

The July 23 election will not affect foreign residents in this sense, since non-Spanish nationals are only permitted to vote in local council elections, if at all. But anyone who holds a Spanish passport will have no choice about working the polling station on that day if they are summoned.

Although this duty is, indeed, remunerated, meaning some people welcome it, the few reasons accepted for getting out of it – such as already-booked travel, certain health or family situations – do not include 'being part of a fiesta parade'.

Missing a day of a fiesta you're involved in every year is not just disappointing, but expensive: It means the membership fee you pay to take part is wasted for that specific day.

From EU leadership 'shift' to voters on holiday 

One other major concern is that hundreds of thousands of Spaniards may not even be in their home towns on election day, and those who consider registering for a postal vote as 'too much hassle' will probably abstain. July and August are key holiday months, and many big-city companies and public sector offices shut down wholly or partly, meaning it is far more common for workers to take their entire annual leave in one block than to split it into separate weeks throughout the year.

Whole families may spend all of July, or all of August, holidaying on the coast or in the countryside, or even simply move to holiday homes they own in the next town for the entire summer, meaning they can still commute to work, but are near a beach or pool during the hot weather.

And it is Spain's turn to take over the Council of Europe presidency from July 1, 2023, for the six months until December 31, 2023. This will be the fifth time the country has held the rotating rôle on the EU-wide committee made up of member States' national leaders – and, to do so, it needs to have a government in place.

Repeat general elections, as was the case before the November 2019 vote led to a Podemos-PSOE coalition, could leave the country without a government for long months.

Until the end of 2019, in fact, Spain had gone over 200 days without a government, after earlier attempts at coalition-forming had failed.

If this recurs, it would not leave Spain in a stable position for its EU leadership 'shift' – although Pedro Sánchez has reportedly assured Brussels that the Spanish State would not allow this to happen.