Tourism 'rebound effect' post-vaccine could make up for 'lost' 2020, says industry minister

As long as it is safe – in public health terms – 2021 could see the nation's tourism industry 'bounce back' with visitors determined to make up for lost time.

“Provided we can regain trust in our tourism industry, all that we have lost this year could be made up for and more besides over the next one to two years,” she says, confidently.

In addition to international keenness to get back to Spain as soon as they are able, holidaymakers may even have a greater amount of money to spend and be more determined to spend it: Not having been able to travel this year, or being reluctant to do so because of the pandemic, means habitual tourists will have saved themselves the cost of their annual break in 2020 and have more to blow on their long-desired trip next year.

But whether it happens as soon as this will depend upon a vaccine being widely available in time for the world to plan their Spanish travels – although even if it is not the case and the inoculation comes too late for next year's holiday plans, Reyes Maroto is certain this eagerness to get away will spur the world's tourists on for 2022.

She thinks the likelihood of a more-successful-than-ever tourism season in 2021 and 2022 could lead to the country's earning all the income it should have had in 2020 on top of that expected under normal circumstances in the next two seasons.

The government is looking at keeping temporary lay-offs – what the UK calls 'furloughs' and Spain calls 'ERTEs' – in place for as long as they are needed, so workers do not have to be made redundant altogether, their companies do not have to shut for good, and dole money will be available for everyone whose jobs have to be put on hold until it is feasible for their bosses to take them back.

Sra Maroto adds that the national authorities are also looking at 'some additional measures' – as yet undefined – which would 'enable the tourism industry to survive until at least Easter 2021', preventing firms from dropping out of the market just because they have had one bad year.

“The calendar we have for a vaccine is based on approximately the end of this year or the beginning of 2021, so the industry has clear timescales within sight as to when it can start working on its recovery,” she explains.

“This year's lack of tourism will show in Spain's economic results for 2020, but that impact will start to reverse from next year onwards.

“Spain, of course, depends much more upon the holiday industry than countries such as, for example, Germany, which is why our GDP has taken a much bigger hit than those of other nations.

“But the minute we have a vaccine, the rebound effect on the economy in Spain will be much faster than it will in other countries – the tourism value chain is one that gets greased very quickly.

“This said, we have to get our 2021 budget signed off – we can't allow this not to happen – because we need it in place to be able to respond to the challenges the pandemic has created and to start our recovery.

“Without being able to sign off the 2021 budget, it would be really difficult to be able to use the European Covid bail-out funds where they are most needed,” Sra Maroto concludes.