PSOE could soar in November elections: Polls forecast up to 150 seats

Out of a total of 350 seats in Parliament, the likelihood of any one party gaining an outright majority has been virtually nil since before the 2015 elections, due to the increasing presence of independent outfits – until then, each election was more or less a straight contest between the 'Big Two', the left-wing PSOE and the right-wing PP.

Constant repeat elections – this will be the fourth in as many years – have occurred because of the party with the most seats falling far short of a majority and being unable to gain support from the opposition to govern, or unable or unwilling to compromise or negotiate with smaller outfits of similar values.

Given that the general view is that the latest repeat, of the April elections, could have been avoided by more flexibility on the part of the parties involved and, in particular, the PSOE as the most-voted, speculations were rife that forcing Spain to go to the polls yet again could see Sánchez's popularity plunge.

He gained 123 seats in April, increasing his previous 87 with which he was governing in the smallest minority in history following a no-confidence vote against the PP in June 2018, but would need 176 for a majority.

The PP gained 66, a huge decline on its previous 137 after its new leader, Pablo Casado, steered the party much farther to the right, and Ciudadanos gained 42, also losing votes after shedding its 'liberal' cloak and aligning itself more with PP values.

Unidos Podemos – a coalition between United Left, led by Alberto Garzón, and Podemos, run by ex-university lecturer and high-profile social protester Pablo Iglesias – has been declining in popularity with each election and gained 57.

For the first time since General Franco's dictatorship, the far right burst onto the scene with Vox gaining 24 seats, whilst the ongoing impasse over Catalunya's independence bid raised support within the region for the most national of its pro-secession parties, Esquerra Republicana Catalana ('Catalunya Left Republicans', or ERC).

Pedro Sánchez claimed earlier in the week that he expected to soar in voter popularity after November 10, predicting a minimum of 150 seats, although the public has been largely sceptical of his apparent over-confidence.

This said, the country's main poll, the CIS, reveals the PSOE could win between 133 and 150 seats, dramatically improving its performance from April but still, as is likely to be the case across the board from now on, some way short of a clear majority.

The PP, having reflected on its unsuccessful strategy ahead of the April elections and sloped slightly more towards the centre, would improve its performance with between 74 and 81 seats, whilst continued falls are expected for Ciudadanos and Unidos Podemos with between 27 and 35 for the former and 37 to 45 for the latter.

Vox may already be losing ground, as it is predicted to lose at least three or up to 10 seats, ending on 14 to 21, whilst the recent unrest in Catalunya could see the ERC climb cautiously to 16 or 18.

Podemos breakaway group Más País! ('More Country'), led by Íñigo Errejón and made up largely of Podemos dissenters, wants to reduce the working week from 40 to 32 hours and increased the minimum wage to an after-tax €1,200 a month – measures that would sit well with Podemos and PSOE voters but which have only been enough to predict between three and four seats for the new party which, due to its differences with Podemos, is unlikely to form any kind of coalition with its former colleagues.

Regional outfits include Compromís, from Valencia, which has joined forces with Más País!, meaning its sole seat would effectively rise, whilst the Basque National Party (PNV) and Basque reunification party EH Bildu would remain the same, or slightly better off, with six to seven seats as opposed to the current six, and five rather than the present four.

The Canarian Coalition currently has two seats and is expected to lose one, at best, keep both, but not to improve, whilst the right-wing Navarra-based party NA would remain where it is now on two seats.

Catalunya separatists, PRC and Junts Per Catalunya, or JxCat, currently with one and seven seats respectively, would not improve and may even shrink slightly, with PRC possibly losing its seat or, at the most, retaining its current one, and JxCat predicted to go down to between four and six.

Another Catalunya independence party, the CUP, which did not gain any seats in April, could be back on the scene with between one and two.

If the CIS poll results reflect reality, in a worst-case scenario, Pedro Sánchez would need an extra 43 MPs to vote in his favour or agree to join him in government to swell his minimum of 133 to the required majority of 176 – and Unidos Podemos, in this worst-case scenario, would only have 37 and would need to be able to reach an agreement with the PSOE, something it failed to do after April.

Another six would be needed, which could come from the PNV, although it is likely that if Sánchez turned to the ERC, he would be seen to be, or actually, 'held hostage' with having to make concessions regarding Catalunya's independence bid and which could turn his supporters who disagree with a referendum on secession against him.

In a best-case scenario, with 150 seats, Sánchez would need another 26, which may come from Unidos Podemos and would take him comfortably over the 176 required, or may come from Ciudadanos.

But PSOE voters in general are not keen, and even staged peaceful demonstrations after the last elections urging Sánchez not to go into coalition with Ciudadanos as they considered it was too right-leaning.

Prior to the April elections, left-wing voters were fearing the possibility of a multiple right-wing coalition, involving the PP, Ciudadanos and Vox – and it may be this hypothetical scenario that saw the first two parties lose votes and Ciudadanos predicted to do worse in November, given that it is supposed to be a liberal outfit and forms part of the Alliance of Liberal Democrats in Europe (ALDE) in the EU Parliament.

But even at the upper end of the CIS' forecast, a PP-Ciudadanos-Vox coalition would not amass sufficient numbers to govern – the predicted 81, 45 and 21 seats collectively would only reach 147, exceeding or levelling with the PSOE on its own, but with little probability of finding a further 29 MPs to support them.

Sánchez's campaign, titled Ahora Sí ('This Time, Yes'), and which will be his third attempt to be invested as president, is urging voters who are undecided to opt for the PSOE, and trying to encourage those who would normally back other left-wing parties to give the socialists their vote for strength in numbers, supporting a left-leaning government whilst avoiding fragmentation.