Home for 47.6 million: Headcount swells in Spain thanks to foreign residents

SPAIN'S population has increased for the first time since the beginning of 2019, which followed several years of decline, and is now comfortably above the 47 million milestone, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INE).

For many years leading up to the start of the 2020s, the headcount was in freefall and sat at around 46 to 46.5 million, but by 2019 it was returning to levels considered 'normal' – closer to numbers seen in the first five or 10 years of the 21st century.

In total, 47,615,034 people live permanently in Spain, as at July 1, 2022, but the increase is due to inward migration rather than more children being born – in fact, the national birth rate, which continues to fall, was at its lowest ever in 2021.

At any one time, more deaths than births have been recorded in Spain, and 2022 has been no exception – a negative balance of 75,409 was reported.

This means 75,409 babies would need to have been born in the first half of the year to 'fill the place' of people who died.

As is usually the case, therefore, Spain's population increase is the result of inward migration, with a positive balance of 258,547.

This means that once the number of residents leaving the country has been deducted from the number of new arrivals, the total headcount rise is 258,547.

The net population increase from January to June 2022 was 182,141, the INE says.

It predicts Spain's population will rise by around five million in the next 50 years through immigration.

Ukrainian nationals helping keep population up

Based upon the first six months of 2021, immigration in the same period of 2022 is 137.9% - back then, a total of 478,990 people moved to Spain, whilst 220,443 left.

Foreign resident numbers in 2021 reduced in Spain, but not entirely due to them moving away – a total of 105,639 inhabitants who were born abroad acquired Spanish citizenship that year, meaning they count as a reduction in 'migrant' statistics and are now recorded as being Spaniards.

The second-largest increase by national group is Ukraine, due to the conflict in the eastern European country and other nations welcoming refugees.

Incoming residents from other countries went up by 172,456 in the first half of this year, reaching a total foreigner population of just under 5.58 million – the greatest rise since 2019.

Colombian nationals were the most numerous among the incomers, with 60,142 arriving, followed by Ukrainians, with 48,396 so far being resettled in the country.

Spain has never closed the door to Ukrainian nationals, meaning the evolution of the conflict may see more refugees; additionally, all Ukrainians already living in Spain, even if they were settled there before the Russian invasion, are automatically entitled to legal residency irrespective of their work status, income and other factors.

Venezuelans grew in number, with 31,703 moving in during the first half of this year, making them the third-largest national group.

Fewer foreigners: Through taking Spanish citizenship, not just through leaving

The greatest reductions were seen in Romanians (11,751 fewer), British (8,381 fewer), and Chinese (5,058 fewer).

It is not clear, however, how many British nationals have opted to take Spanish citizenship, which would automatically be registered as a decline in their numbers and an increase in the population of Spaniards – until 2021, it is unlikely any UK national would have considered it beneficial to 'become Spanish', as European Union citizens generally do not need to do so when living in other member States.

Although the Withdrawal Agreement signed by the UK and the remaining EU-27 stipulates that British nationals already legally resident in any EU country prior to Brexit would continue to be treated, for all administrative purposes, as though they were still citizens of the bloc – albeit only within their country of residence – concerns about what may happen to them before Brexit was consummated in February 2021 may have led to several existing long-term UK nationals in Spain seeking Spanish citizenship.

In terms of non-Spanish-born population increase by percentage, the national group that has risen the most by proportion is that of Ukrainians.

Their community in Spain swelled by 45.8% between January and June 2022, and they were followed by those from Perú (20.1%), and Colombia (19.1%).

The greatest decline in percentage – which may be partially due to newly-acquired Spanish citizenship – was from Ecuador (down 2.8%), the UK (falling by 2.7%), and China (2.6% lower).

Rise and fall by region

Spaniards rose in number by 9,685, but largely because of a statistically-insignificant number of returning emigrants (241), and newly-acquired Spanish passports among foreign-born citizens.

But Spaniards born in Spain fell in number by 71,257.

In 2021, only 337,380 babies were born – a figure that has been in steady decline for decades.

This is of particular concern in very rural areas, where villages are fighting demographic extinction as their populations age and no younger, working-aged and childbearing-aged residents move in.

Overall, though, the headcount went up in 14 of Spain's 19 States, or autonomously-governed regions.

Population shrinkage was only seen in Extremadura, in the west; Asturias, on the northern coast, Castilla y León, in the north-west, and in the city-provinces of Ceuta and Melilla on the northern shores of Morocco.

Madrid, the Balearic Islands and the Comunidad Valenciana – effectively, the capital and the Mediterranean – saw the greatest increases in headcount.

For foreign-born communities, a total of 92.2% are, or started life out as, nationals of other countries, whilst 7.8% were Spanish nationals from birth but were born abroad.

In figures, this is 441,781 and 37,209 respectively.

Trends in non-Spanish resident departures

Of the main groups who left the country in 2022, Romanians who moved away from Spain were mostly those who arrived either between 2006 and 2007 or between 2018 and 2019; Moroccan nationals who left the country were more recent arrivals, typically from 2017 to 2020, as were the British citizens who left Spain.

Of the latter, the majority of those who gave up their lives in Spain had arrived in the country to live some time between 2016 and 2019.

Other than the Romanians who settled in Spain between 2006 and 2007, none of these would be counted as ‘outgoing foreigners’ on paper alone, through acquiring Spanish citizenship rather than leaving the country; this can only be applied for after 10 years of continuous legal residence.

Only nationals of Spain's former colonies, of Portugal, descendants of Sephardic Jews forced out of the country in 1492, of those exiled during the Franco era, or of those who helped in the Civil War via the International Brigades are able to acquire Spanish nationality in under a decade - after two years' legal residence for the first two groups, or instantly for the latter three.

These are, additionally, the only categories of applicants who are permitted by Spanish law to hold dual citizenship, and the final three groups do not have to show they live in or have ever lived in Spain.

The regions in Spain with the highest positive net migration figures – more arrivals than those leaving – were Madrid, Catalunya and the Comunidad Valenciana, whilst those with negative net migration figures were La Rioja, Extremadura and Cantabria.